Griffin Wong preps you for Game 2 between the Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.
All eight series in the NBA playoffs tipped off last weekend with Game 1. Of the eight games, seven were relatively non-competitive.
The only exception came high in the Rocky Mountains, where five extra minutes were needed to decide a thriller between the Denver Nuggets and the LA Clippers. Ultimately, the home side notched a 112-110 victory, but LA set the tone that the rest of the series will be a grind. The two teams will face off again tonight at 10 p.m. ET for Game 2.
Underscoring the toss-up nature of the series, the Clippers are just one-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 217.5. LA is -118 on the Moneyline, and Denver is -102.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (LAC @ DEN).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
James Harden ($17,400 CP) – I wanted to get myself to pick Nikola Jokić ($20,400 CP), who’s obviously the best player on either team. But I can’t justify spending more than 40% of my salary on a player, especially when the man guarding him — who I’ll get to later — should get some Defensive Player of the Year love, though he wasn’t named one of the three finalists on Sunday afternoon. On Saturday, he dropped 27 points, snagged nine rebounds, and dished out 12 assists (67.25 FPTS), but it wasn’t good enough to justify his price tag vis-a-vis Harden’s. The Beard had 32 points, six boards, and 11 dimes (60.5 FPTS).
Interim coach David Adelman threw a combination of defenders at Harden in Game 1, but the player who guarded him the most frequently was Christian Braun ($9,000 CP), who marked Harden for roughly seven minutes of game time. The strategy was unsuccessful, as Harden recorded 13 points and four assists on four-for-seven shooting from the field (three-for-four from deep) during that time. There’s reason to think that Braun could bounce back — he held Harden to just three-for-15 shooting during the regular season — but I’ll trust the playoff experience and basketball IQ of The Beard, who’s now recorded 60 or more FPTS in four of his past five games.
Jamal Murray ($14,100 CP) – By comparing his regular-season scoring average with his postseason scoring average, Murray is the single biggest playoff riser in NBA history, as he averages 18.0 points per game during the regular season and 24.1 in the playoffs. In part, his regular-season scoring average is dragged down by a rookie season in which he averaged just 9.9 points per contest, but even in 2019-20 and 2022-23, his scoring average jumped by six or more points relative to the regular season. After an inconsistent 2024-25 regular season in which he missed time towards the end of the season with a hamstring issue, his Game 1 performance was relatively solid, as he recorded 21 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists (44.75 FPTS).
Murray wasn’t incredibly efficient — just seven-for-20 from the field, including five-for-13 from two-point range — but game-to-game usage rate is more stable than game-to-game efficiency. To be fair, he’ll have some challenges against a Clippers team that, during the regular season, allowed a merely average number of fantasy points to the position and threw two of the league’s best perimeter defenders — Kris Dunn ($6,600 CP) and Kawhi Leonard ($15,900 CP) — at him during Game 1. But forcing attention from LA’s best defenders means he has more room to operate as a playmaker; he dished out four assists in just two minutes when guarded by center Ivica Zubac ($14,400 CP).
FLEX Plays
Ivica Zubac ($9,600) – Speaking of the Most Improved Player finalist, Zubac carried his hot form from the regular season over to the playoffs, posting a sensational 21 points and 13 rebounds (42.75 FPTS). He was also rather efficient (10-for-15 from the field) and recorded at least one steal for his fourth time in the last five games. The fact that he only went one-for-four from the free throw line in a game that eventually went to overtime obviously isn’t ideal, but that’d be nitpicking the Croatian’s performance unfairly. He’s virtually a guarantee for 20 points and 10 rebounds — something he’s done in five of his past six games.
If the Nuggets want to slow Zubac down, they’re going to have to do a better job of not letting him switch onto a smaller defender. For all of his defensive inconsistencies — regression in his rim protection is arguably the primary reason why he’s likely to lose the MVP award to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season — Jokić at least has the size to bother his counterpart. In nine minutes matched up against Jokić, Zubac had no points on zero-for-two shooting, dishing out one assist and coughing up two turnovers. But he did torch Michael Porter Jr. ($7,400) and Murray each for eight points on four-for-five shooting in just two total minutes of game time. Both Adelman and Tyronn Lue will seek to get their star centers away from each other on offense.
Russell Westbrook ($6,800) – Hoops fans were treated to the full Brodie experience at the end of Saturday’s game; he hit a wide open left-corner triple off a Jokić assist to take a 98-96 lead with 24 seconds remaining then failed to get off a shot at the buzzer after Harden tied the game with a floater. Then, at one point in overtime, he missed a three before getting his own offensive rebound and smoking the ensuing layup. For better or for worse, Westbrook’s going to give every possession his full effort, a vital trait in the playoffs even with his questionable history in the postseason.
He makes this list because of his playing time; on a very thin roster, he’s Denver’s most-trusted bench piece, playing 34 minutes in Game 1 and replacing Porter in crunch time. Despite terrible efficiency — for LA fans, I’m sure his five-for-17 shooting performance evoked memories of his poor performance in last season’s playoffs when he was a member of the Clippers — he managed to put up respectable fantasy output, recording 15 points, eight boards, three assists, and two steals (34.0 FPTS). He posted a 23.5% usage rate in Game 1, the second-highest figure on the team.
Fades
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,400) – There’s a reason why Adelman benched Porter in crunch time — he was virtually nonexistent on offense, scoring just three points on one-for-four shooting and one-for-two from deep (8.0 FPTS), marking the second time in three games in which he was held under 10 points after doing so just five times in his first 75 games of the season. He was also -8 in his 26 minutes, dished out no assists, and recorded neither a steal or a block. Leonard held him to just one shot attempt in the 24.7 partial possessions in which he guarded him, and he didn’t defend LA much, either, as various Clippers combined for 16 points on seven-for-12 shooting against him. It’s a terrible sign for Porter that in Game 1, Adelman trusted Westbrook, a career 30.5% three-point shooter, to stand in the corner in clutch time and not Porter, whose career 40.6% mark from deep is the 26th-highest in NBA history among 563 players who have attempted 1,000 or more triples.
THE OUTCOME
The Nuggets didn’t play their best basketball in Game 1. It’s likely that Porter will score more than three points, that Murray and Westbrook will both be more efficient, and that Jokić will snag more than nine rebounds in Game 2. Denver was more efficient than LA during the regular season both from the field — where they were the only team to shoot better than 50% during the regular season — and from deep, and the Clippers outshot them in both facets on Saturday.
But by the same token, is it realistic to expect Gordon — who’s never averaged more than 16 points a game in the postseason — to record consistent 25-point games? How about Westbrook grabbing four offensive rebounds?
Denver almost lost despite forcing Leonard to commit seven turnovers — his most of the season and tied for the most of his vaunted playoff career — and posting a plus-nine turnover differential overall. Norman Powell ($6,400), who had the sixth-highest three-point percentage in the regular season of any player who attempted at least five triples per game, scored just 12 points on two-for-six accuracy from deep (one-for-five excluding garbage time). LA was just 11-12 in the regular season when Powell made one-third or fewer of his three-point attempts, with five of the wins coming against bottom-two teams in each conference; of course it lost on Saturday.
Suppose either team has a merely average turnover performance, and the Clippers are up 1-0. They’ll make it 1-1 headed back to the Intuit Dome.
